2007 Grand National Betting Tips
by matt @ 9:10 am. Blogged under Sport
The Grand National at Aintree tends to symbolise the start of the online betting year for me. For the past three years my efforts to spread bet across five of the forty race runners have paid off with a win each year. The technique may only double or triple your total outlay but it doesn’t take away the satisfaction of knowing you backed the winner! There are some basic tips to follow when choosing your five horses (have a sixth in reserve for a free bet offer which usually exists online these days). After the time consuming job of eliminating non qualifying horses the choices are usually much simpler.
Grand National Horse Selection Tips
1. Choosing a horse because it has a nice name or because you like the jockey’s colours is not advisable!
2. Don’t bet on anything outside of the 8-12 year old bracket and ideally back horses aged 9 or 10 years old.
3. History favours horses with previous Aintree racecourse experience, so look for horses who ran there previously either in the Grand National or other races.
4. Horses weighing more than 11st 5lbs rarely win (just five have done so since 1945) so don’t back those.
5. Grand National winners have always had wins on other races over 3-4 miles, no previous wins means don’t back it.
6. Runners with experience of racing in at least 10 chases (races with fences) are a good bet.
7. Avoid any horses which have fallen in the current season.
8. Look for horses who have won a fair bit of competition money from previous chases.
9. Try and match the preferred ground to that of Aintree race day (usually ‘good to soft’ and not ‘good to firm’ in April)
The final runners are yet to be announced this coming Thursday; I like to get in on the odds early though so here’s the elimination rundown of the eighteen worth considering, followed by my likely 2007 Grand National spreadbet on optimal criteria. Currently the weather forecast for Saturday April 14th is for no rain and lots of sun, going will probably be ‘good to soft’.
Soft Runners
- 28/1 Silver Birch Age:(10) Weight:(10-6) 3-4m Wins(4) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (13) NAT EXP
- 10/1 Point Barrow Age:(9) Weight:(10-12) 3-4m Wins(5) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (0)
- 10/1 Dun Doire Age:(8) Weight:(10-8) 3-4m Wins(4) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (13) NAT EXP Fallen 1
- 11/1 Numbersixvalverde Age:(11) 2006 Winner Weight:(11-3) 3-4m Wins(3) 4m Long Wins(1) Chases (12) NAT EXP (WON 06)
- 50/1 Philson Run Age:(11) Weight:(10-5) 3-4m Wins(2) 4m Long Wins(2) Chases (13) NAT EXP
- 16/1 Simon Age:(8) Weight:(10-11) 3-4m Wins(4) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (12)
- 50/1 Naunton Brook Age:(8) Weight:(10-4) 3-4m Wins(3) 4m Long Wins(1) Chases (18) Fallen 1
Good to Soft Runners
- 33/1 Kelami Age:(9) Weight:(10-12) 3-4m Wins(2) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (28) NAT EXP
- 50/1 Graphic Approach Age:(9) Weight:(10-6) 3-4m Wins(2) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (11) Fallen 1
- 100/1 Sonevafushi Age:(9) Weight:(10-3) 3-4m Wins(4) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (20)
- 25/1 Billyvoddan Age:(9) Weight:(11-4) 3-4m Wins(1) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (9)
- 66/1 Gallant Approach Age:(8) Weight:(10-9) 3-4m Wins(1) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (6)
Good Runners
- 11/1 Joes Edge Age:(10) Weight:(10-2) 3-4m Wins(1) 4m Long Wins(1) Chases (18) NAT
- 25/1 Bewleys Berry Age:(9) Weight:(10-7) 3-4m Wins(1) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (0)
- 25/1 Bothar Na Age:(8) Weight:(10-6) 3-4m Wins(4) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (15) NAT EXP Fallen 1
- 25/1 McKelvey Age:(8) Weight:(10-4) 3-4m Wins(1) 4m Long Wins(1) Chases (13) NAT EXP
- 16/1 Hedgehunter Age:(11) Weight:(11-12) 3-4m Wins(3) 4m Long Wins(1) Chases (0) NAT EXP (2nd 06)
Good to Firm Runners
- 50/1 Ballycassidy Age:(11) Weight:(10-9) 3-4m Wins(6) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (38) NAT EXP
Matt’s Spreadbet for the 2007 Grand National:
- 11/1 Joes Edge £5
- 25/1 Billyvoddan £5
- 25/1 McKelvey £5
- 28/1 Silver Birch £5
- 33/1 Kelami £5
- Freebie: 16/1 Simon £0 (Free £10 at Paddy Power)
and well worth a £2 each way gamble:
100/1 Sonevafushi Age:(9) Weight:(10-3) 3-4m Wins(4) 4m Long Wins(0) Chases (20)
(Odds are for information purposes only - taken Tuesday 11th April)
Technorati Tags: grand national, aintree, horse racing, betting online, joes edge, billyvoddan, mckelvey, silver birch, kelami, point barrow
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April 13th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Saw John McCririck on GMTV this morning quoting Billyvoddan and McKelvey as good horses top back. Damn I’m good
April 14th, 2007 at 4:55 pm
So… for four years running this technique has worked with Silver Birch winning the 2007 grand national at 28-1. My £5 to win means a £145 return, less the £30 outlay for all six horses means a gain of £115! You know where to come next year
I was even pleased to get McKelvey at second place, even though that was backed to win and not each way.
April 15th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Not bad Matt, not bad.
Spread betting is an interesting idea, but it’s not usually one I favour. It clearly works for you though!
April 15th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Well worth remembering the name McKelvey for next year - at 8 years old and coming second it’s a good sign for next year if the form is maintained.