2007 Eurovision Song Contest Winners?
by matt @ 4:10 pm. Blogged under Music, Travel / Holidays, TV Shows
So it’s time for the 2007 Eurovision song contest already; in my family the annual ‘Sit around the telly with a score card’ bonding session. Unfortunately I’m going to miss the finals again this year attending a wedding – so that’s two finals I’m missing on Saturday (my beloved Stevenage Borough FC are in the FA Trophy Final at Wembley). My mother remarked to me this week that she’d read an article saying that the United Kingdom would never win the Song Contest again because of the geographic break up of Eastern Europe and subsequent social voting collusion. As I’m putting a cash spread bet on Eurovision this year I looked for a method of winner prediction similar to that which I use successfully for the Grand National. I found some extremely useful information…
Firstly I looked at YouTube – let’s face it, with all the Eurovision 2007 songs already released and doing the rounds online, a form of voting has already taken place by the masses. I added together the total number of views each Eurovision country’s video had had to date, to see which was most popular. The winner, by a BIG margin is Turkey’s ‘Shake it up Shekarim’. Strangely Greece, the second most popular 2007 Eurovision entry, are also asking people to ‘shake it up’ in their lyrics.
Eurovision 2007 Popularity Table by YouTube Views:
1. Turkey - ‘Shake it up Shekarim’Â 2.0 million views - 33/1 - (29/1 post semi finals)
2. Greece - ‘Yassou Maria’ 500,000 views - 16/1 - (21/1 post semi finals)
3. Ukraine - ‘Danzing’ 450,000 views - 13/2 - (9/2 post semi finals)
4. Switzerland ‘Vampires Are Alive’ 400,000 views - 10/1 - (OUT)
5. Poland - ‘Time to Party’ 300,000Â views - 100/1 - (OUT)
6. Russia - ‘Song 1′ 250,000 views - 12/1 - (10/1 post semi finals)
7. Bulgaria - ‘Water’ 230,000 views - 12/1 - (10/1 post semi finals)
8. Germany - ‘Women Run The World’ 160,000 views - 80/1 - (21/1 post semi finals)
9. Belarus - ‘Work Your Magic’ 100,000 views - 7/1 - (6/1 post semi finals)
10. Belgium - ‘Love Power’Â 50,000 views - 125/1 - (OUT)
11. Denmark ‘Drama Queen’ 50,000 views - 28/1 - (OUT)
I’m quite gobsmacked that you can get Turkey at 33/1 at Totesport! Technically though I have missed an important song out here – Israel’s ‘Push the Button’ which had a mammoth 600,000 YouTube views to date. However, that song is being downloaded for all the wrong reasons – namely that it is comical and a political statement (apparently). Since this has been produced by Israel – a country falling outside of the key voting blocs (who are now increasingly muslim) it doesn’t actually make it any more likely that they will win for their sense of humour (I’d love to be proved wrong). I also read this week that the group responsible for ‘Push the Button’ - Teapacks - had threatened to walk out because they’d been asked to tone down their lyrics.
Understanding how the Eurovision voting blocs have evolved over time is the second major element involved in predicting the 2007 winner. I found a fascinating paper analysing all the previous voting history since the Eurovision Song Contest began, it demonstrates social collusion between nations (i.e. Cyprus and Turkey sharing their 12 points allocations). It’s very detailed and I recommend a thorough read: ‘Comparison of Eurovision Song Contest Simulation with Actual Results Reveals Shifting Patterns of Collusive Voting Alliances’. If I didn’t know better I’d say Terry Wogan was behind the paper’s creation - since it supports everything he’s ever said about vote rigging during the final Eurovision vote allocations.
In summary the important part of this paper for me proposes that “The numbers of countries involved in collusion has jumped from a maximum of 4 during any 5-year period prior to 1990, to 6 in the early 90s, to 11 in the late 90s, and in the last 5-year epoch has reached 25. Considering that there are only 39 currently active members of the EBU participating in the contest, the level of infection has reached 64%…. Many of the new countries thus seem to be entering with immediate view to joining one of the existing blocs…. The Balkan Bloc, with currently 10 members, has been able to use its vote to capture the 2003 and 2005 contestsâ€?
> The Balkan Bloc consists of: Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Turkey, Macedonia, Albania, Serbia & Montenegro, Greece, Romania, Cyprus
> The ‘Viking Empire’ consists of Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
The paper suggests that the arrival of Moldova, Belarus and Bulgaria may signal a period of ‘Balkan hegemony’ over the contest. In my opinion, since there are three Balkan Eurovision numbers in the YouTube top ten this year (Turkey, Greece and now Bulgaria) and only one ‘Viking’ number – Demark, one would have to favour the chances of a Balkan winner this year. Furthermore, there’s no question that the Turkish entry is VERY good, unlike the UK entry from Scooch with its hidden backing vocalists… I look forward to seeing the Semi Finals on BBC3 tonight so that I manage to at least get a bit of a ‘Eurovision fix’ this year. I’ve done £1 to win and each way on all eleven songs above, let’s see if it’s profitable come Saturday night.
Technorati Tags: eurovision, eurovision 2007, eurovision song contest, song contest, esc, turkey, greece, shake it up shekarim, ukraine, switzerland, poland, bulgaria, germany, belarus, belgium, russia, denmark
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May 10th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
The 2007 Eurovision semi-finals are over and I’m in quite a bit of shock! I lost the following four popular YouTube acts who were much better than the acts that replaced them:
> Switzerland
> Poland
> Belgium
> Denmark
Thankfully Turkey made it through to the finals despite one of the poorer stage presences of the night, as did my other favourites. If like me you’re wondering how Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova and Macedonia got through, take a look at a map of the Balkans and re-read the article above - especially the mention of growing Balkan hegemony! On this basis we can forget the song’s quality altogether and just bet on the Balkans… before you know it there’ll be a Balkanvision all of its own. I would say that Georgia’s entry grew on me and is worth £2, but since it’s not a Balkan country I don’t fancy its chances…
May 11th, 2007 at 2:24 am
What? weren’t the Balkans on fire a few years ago? You’re saying that all of a sudden they are best friends once again? Can’t be that way! Western media showed the truth about the Balkans for a decade.
May 11th, 2007 at 9:19 am
Well ‘Balkan Love’ is what the voting patterns indicate, Derek Gatherer’s paper has this handy little diagram showing the groups of colluding countries. It could be a country choice, but then again perhaps it’s just that they all share the same bizarre taste in music…
May 11th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
Isn’t it a question of ‘we stand united against the rest of you’- even if we do hate each other?
May 11th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
“who are now increasingly muslim” this bit seems quite offensive.
May 11th, 2007 at 7:28 pm
How is pointing out a demographic shift on the basis of a nation’s core religion offensive? What next, if I point out that most of Western Europe is Christian that’s offensive? It’s logical that people sharing a common ideolgy will share similar music tastes and therefore vote more for the likes of Turkey - it’s an observation not a racist remark.
May 11th, 2007 at 7:43 pm
Oh here’s the relevant Wikipedia quote for you ‘Countries with significant Muslim population are’… Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Georgia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine…. As of 2005, about 5% of EU residents identify themselves as Muslims.’
As you can see these are largely newer members of Eurovision, involved very much in the new ‘Balkan bloc’ swing. With media influence I believe strongly that they are more likely to support a neighbour with common musical taste.
Any thoughts on offensiveness Shirley with your Muslim input - would Hamid be offended by siuch a factual statement?
May 11th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
Matt, with the exception of Albania, Bosnia and Macedonia, none of the countries you listed above have a larger Muslim community than say France or Germany. Romania and Ukraine have no Muslim community to speak of. So there wasn’t much of a fact in that statement.
May 11th, 2007 at 10:55 pm
Of course, Turkey is a Muslim country.
May 12th, 2007 at 12:31 am
Romania weren’t mentioned, Wikipedia are definitely suggesting that these other countries have significant Muslim populations, although I have found another entry on there stating ‘In the Balkans, Muslims make up 70 per cent of the population of Albania, 40 per cent in Bosnia and Herzegovina and 30 per cent in Macedonia’. What I am saying is that more voters entering the ESC from a different cultural background doesn’t help any of the traditional winners with very different music styles - Israel included. There was a time when Denmark and Switzerland would not have been ditched last night.
May 12th, 2007 at 1:42 am
I watched and thought it was an eastern european contest..but after listening to the entries several times I THINK most of the 10 semifinalists were great. I think Bosnia Herz. and Moldova and Serbia will be among the top 5. Also Turkey and Greece and Spain will be up among the top 10. Germany is a great song but German lyrics..sorry . Well my opinion wont count , after all until you include USA and World Song Contest we cant vote…. Good Luck. New York City wish u all the best.
May 12th, 2007 at 1:48 am
I have to agree with the voting except Denmark should have made it. I think Moldova, Serbia, Spain, Bosnia Herzegovina,Greece and lets see what happens with Sweden….but we need a new system to make it fair
May 12th, 2007 at 2:02 am
Since when music had religion?
May 12th, 2007 at 9:08 am
Every country has it’s own culture and obviously those within that culture are going to be drawn to similar musical styles. For this reason the UK will probably never win again as,as has been pointed out here, the voting is collusive.
The observation that these countries happen to be ‘increasingly Muslim’ is presented as just that an observation, it does however appear to be supported by researched criteria. If that is seen as offensive then we might as well burn all history books.
It seems we can’t have a debate about anything these days without offending someone’s sensibilities.
The Muslims I know who read this statement were not at all offended.
Re the contest itself. Personally I like Turkey’s entry. It has a flavour of Egyptian music about it, but then Egyptian music does blend indigenous traditions with Turkish, Arabic and Western.
I didn’t like Egyptian music at first but after making an effort to understand and listen to it I love it. Plus I can now understand some of the Arabic words, which helps.
It’s important to try and understand and celebrate all cultures and I feel this contest helps to do that.
By appreciating each other’s cultures we will have a happier world.
Enjoy the contest tonight I will.
May 12th, 2007 at 11:32 am
Having just listened to Turkey, Greece and Russia again I actually think Greece has the best chance, it’s a bit more Eurovision. A shame this Greek number didn’t make it. Have fun with Belarus tonight - sounds like he’s singing ‘magic eye’ and ‘magic shoe’ for which you can do the actions…
May 12th, 2007 at 1:19 pm
I shall be cheering for Russia, Greece and the UK! they are the best! might even place a cheeky bet.
To say the statement about muslim countries to be offensive reminds me of a job I had once where we were banned from using the words ‘man hole cover’ and Yorkie bars(chocolate for men) were banned from the staff shop. they were deemed offensive to women.
Back to the Eurovision which this thread is all about!! can’t wait! a celebration in song bringing European countries together.
May 13th, 2007 at 12:08 am
So how good was this spread betting prediction technique after the semi-final stage knock outs for placing a bet?
Actual 2007 Eurovision Results:
1. Serbia (ignored completely as didn’t think a woman who looked like Penfold from Dangermouse had a chance) doh!
2. Ukraine (predicted 3rd) - paid out each way
3. Russia (predicted 4th) - paid out each way
4. Turkey (predicted 1st) - paid out each way
5. Bulgaria (predicted 5th) - outside each way bets…
Return £16.66 from £22 bet, an overall loss but an acceptable one, try again next year without wasting money on non ‘Balkan Bloc’ countries, focus more on the Balkans - who says there’s no ‘Balkan Love’ now?
May 13th, 2007 at 8:26 am
I think it’s time we pulled out of this with such obvious block voting what’s the point? I thought Scootch performed well and deserved more points than they got.
It was a farce and even old Terry’s comments seemed to lack lustre this year or maybe it was just my imagination.
May 13th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
Lol yes the whole show was more farcical than I have ever seen it. It became a Geography challenge at our party rather than a song contest to see who could guess all the neighbouring countries before the votes were revealed. I was lucky having Russia on the sweepstake so that kept my attention for a little while. I was totally disappointed by the whole show it was ludicrous. I have said that I won’t waste my time next year however I think I said that last year.