2008 Grand National Betting Tips
by matt @ 10:21 pm. Blogged under Thinking, Sport
It’s that time of year again where Grand National fever grips the UK population and everybody goes flutter crazy. With a four year winning streak behind me I’ll be looking to make this my 5th year of success with my spread betting technique. Last year I won £145, putting me up £115 after taking off the £30 outlay, a shame that I only ‘bet to win’ using my strategy and not ‘each way’ because I also managed to bet on McKelvey which came in second. I’ve spent a fair amount of time on the analysis again this year as usual and thanks to a Wikipedia Grand National winners chart decided to lower my maximum handicap threshold from 11-5 to 11-1. I may live to regret that as it rules out the yet to fall over ‘Vodka Bleu’ but fingers crossed it’ll be a wise move.
So, the idea is - pick five horses and put £5 to win on each one - usually getting an additional free sixth bet from one of the online betting companies as part of the special deal. A recap on the selection rules in place:
Grand National Horse Selection Tips
1. Choosing a horse because it has a nice name or because you like the jockey’s colours is not advisable!
2. Don’t bet on anything outside of the 8-12 year old bracket and ideally back horses aged 9 or 10 years old.
3. History favours horses with previous Aintree racecourse experience, so look for horses who ran there previously either in the Grand National or other races.
4. Horses weighing more than 11st 1lbs (reduced from 5lbs for 2008!) rarely win (none since 1983).
5. Grand National winners have always had wins on other races over 3-4 miles, no previous wins means don’t back it.
6. Runners with experience of racing in at least 10 chases (races with fences) are a good bet.
7. Avoid any horses which have fallen in the current season.
8. Look for horses who have won a fair bit of competition money from previous chases.
9. Try and match the preferred ground to that of Aintree race day (usually ‘good to soft’ and not ‘good to firm’ in April)
I found it quite hard to make my selections this year as there are a number of 2007 Grand National runners making a repeat visit to Aintree for 2008, the rules give us the following horses:
Heavy Runners
- 50-1 Homer Wells - Age:(10) Weight: (10-8) 3-4m Wins (3) Long Wins (0) Chases (14) NAT EXP
Soft Runners
- 33-1 Dun Doire - Age:(9) Weight: (10-7) 3-4m Wins (4) Long Wins (0) Chases (14) NAT EXP
- 66-1 Naunton Brook - Age:(9) Weight: (10-10) 3-4m Wins (4) Long Wins (1) Chases (25) NAT EXP
- 20-1 Point Barrow - Age:(10) Weight: (10-13) 3-4m Wins (5) Long Wins (0) Chases (23) NAT EXP
- 25-1 LAmi - Age:(9) Weight: (11-1) 3-4m Wins (2) Long Wins (0) Chases (33) NAT EXP
- 40-1 Ossmoses - Age:(11) Weight: (10-6) 3-4m Wins (5) Long Wins (0) Chases (15)
- 66-1 Black Apalachi - Age:(9) Weight: (10-8) 3-4m Wins (1) Long Wins (0) Chases (17)
- 66-1 Joaaci - Age:(8) Weight: (10-13) 3-4m Wins (3) Long Wins (0) Chases (14)
Good to Soft Runners
- 40-1 DArgent - Age:(11) Weight: (10-12) 3-4m Wins (5) Long Wins (0) Chases (18)
- 66-1 Backbeat - Age:(11) Weight: (10-9) 3-4m Wins (1) Long Wins (0) Chases (10)
- 66-1 Ardaghey - Age:(9) Weight: (10-7) 3-4m Wins (3) Long Wins (0) Chases (19)
- 6-1 Cloudy Lane - Age:(8) Weight: (10-11) 3-4m Wins (5) Long Wins (0) Chases (11)
- 40-1 Over The Creek - Age:(9) Weight: (10-10) 3-4m Wins (2) Long Wins (0) Chases (9)
Good Runners
- 12-1 Comply Or Die - Age:(9) Weight: (10-9) 3-4m Wins (1) Long Wins (1) Chases (14)
- 20-1 McKelvey - Age:(9) Weight: (11-0) 3-4m Wins (1) Long Wins (1) Chases (14) (last year 2nd but carried 6lbs less)
- 50-1 Cornish Sett - Age:(9) Weight: (10-10) 3-4m Wins (1) Long Wins (0) Chases (15)
- 16-1 Bewleys Berry - Age:(10) Weight: (11-0) 3-4m Wins (1) Long Wins (0) Chases (11) NAT EXP
I’m expecting the going to be on the softer side of ‘Good to Soft’ given all the snow we’ve had and gales forecast for next weekend. On that basis I will be betting on the following horses:
- 66-1 Naunton Brook - Age:(9) Weight: (10-10) 3-4m Wins (4) Long Wins (1) Chases (25) NAT EXP
- 33-1 Dun Doire - Age:(9) Weight: (10-7) 3-4m Wins (4) Long Wins (0) Chases (14) NAT EXP
- 40-1 Ossmoses - Age:(11) Weight: (10-6) 3-4m Wins (5) Long Wins (0) Chases (15)
- 40-1 DArgent - Age:(11) Weight: (10-12) 3-4m Wins (5) Long Wins (0) Chases (18)
- 12-1 Comply Or Die - Age:(9) Weight: (10-9) 3-4m Wins (1) Long Wins (1) Chases (14)
Free Bet:
20-1 McKelvey - Age:(9) Weight: (11-0) 3-4m Wins (1) Long Wins (1) Chases (14) (last year 2nd but carries 6lbs more in 2008)
All odds are as listed on March 25th at Grand-National-Guide.co.uk which now features a wonderful interactive form guide, enabling me to make my selections much more quickly than in previous years. If you choose to join me in my spread betting experiment you’re more than welcome, just remember, nobody can guarantee a winner! If I am on form myself I will win somewhere between £60 and £360.
Technorati Tags: grand national, aintree, horse racing, horse rac, betting online, naunton brook, don doire, ossmoses, dargent, comply or die
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March 26th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
My Money is on Slim Pickings. Ran a great race when finishing third in the 2007 National but may have just run out of stamina on the run in. Although Cloudy Lane is looking pretty good, he comes from the Red Rum Yard.
April 5th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
So 5 years in a row this has worked now, I’m officially calling this a ’system’. I switched Ossmoses for Bewley’s Berry as it didn’t run but that seemed to die away near the end of the race. At least Comply or Die came good - not a big fan of the low odds winners though as only doubles your money! Still mustn’t complain.